{"id":7070,"date":"2024-06-20T14:16:58","date_gmt":"2024-06-20T06:16:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.develpress.com\/?p=7070"},"modified":"2024-08-07T14:17:41","modified_gmt":"2024-08-07T06:17:41","slug":"%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83%e5%8f%91%e5%b1%95%e6%8a%a5%e5%91%8a%ef%bd%9c%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83%e5%8f%91%e5%b1%95%e8%9e%8d%e8%b5%84%e4%b8%a5%e9%87%8d%e4%b8%8d%e8%b6%b3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.develpress.com\/?p=7070","title":{"rendered":"\u5168\u7403\u53d1\u5c55\u62a5\u544a\uff5c\u5168\u7403\u53d1\u5c55\u878d\u8d44\u4e25\u91cd\u4e0d\u8db3"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

2008\u5e74\u56fd\u9645\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u540e\uff0c\u6d41\u5411\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u4f46\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u540e\u6709\u6240\u4e0b\u6ed1\u3002\u6839\u636e\u4e16\u754c\u94f6\u884c\u6570\u636e\uff0c2010\u20142021\u5e74\uff0c\u591a\u8fb9\u548c\u53cc\u8fb9\u673a\u6784\u7684\u5b98\u65b9\u8d37\u6b3e\u627f\u8bfa\u603b\u989d\u8fbe1.737\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c59%\u7531\u591a\u8fb9\u673a\u6784\u63d0\u4f9b\uff0c41%\u7531\u53cc\u8fb9\u673a\u6784\u63d0\u4f9b\u3002\u591a\u8fb9\u673a\u6784\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u8d37\u6b3e\u4e0e\u53cc\u8fb9\u673a\u6784\u76f8\u6bd4\u4fdd\u6301\u76f8\u5bf9\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u51e0\u5e74\u5360\u6bd4\u6709\u6240\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4ece 2016\u5e74\u768458%\u4e0a\u5347\u52302021\u5e74\u768468%\u30022000\u20142007\u5e74\uff0c\u591a\u8fb9\u673a\u6784\u5411\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u51c0\u8d44\u91d1\u8f6c\u79fb\uff08NTR\uff09\u57fa\u672c\u4e3a\u8d1f\u503c\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u8fd8\u6b3e\u9ad8\u4e8e\u65b0\u63a5\u53d7\u7684\u63f4\u52a9\u6216\u8d37\u6b3e\uff0c2007\u5e74\u4ee5\u540eNTR\u8f6c\u4e3a\u6b63\u503c\u30022020\u5e74\uff0c\u591a\u8fb9\u673a\u6784\u5411\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684NTR\u53ca\u62e8\u4ed8\u603b\u989d\u5747\u663e\u8457\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u7528\u4e8e\u5e94\u5bf9\u65b0\u51a0\u5927\u6d41\u884c\uff0c\u4f462021\u5e74\u8fc5\u901f\u4e0b\u964d\u30021995\u20142008\u5e74\uff0c\u4ee5\u53cc\u8fb9\u6e20\u9053\u5411\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684NTR\u4e3a\u8d1f\u503c\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u8fd8\u6b3e\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u4f20\u7edf\u63f4\u52a9\u56fd\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u65b0\u8d44\u91d1\u30022008\u5e74\u540e\uff0c\u53cc\u8fb9\u6e20\u9053\u6d41\u5411\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684NTR\u8f6c\u4e3a\u6b63\u503c\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5728\u5357\u5357\u5408\u4f5c\u6846\u67b6\u4e0b\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u53d1\u5c55\u878d\u8d44\u4f5c\u51fa\u4e86\u91cd\u8981\u8d21\u732e\u3002\u6839\u636e\u4e16\u754c\u94f6\u884c\u6570\u636e\uff0c2008\u5e74\u56fd\u9645\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u91d1\u7816\u56fd\u5bb6\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e863580\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u8d37\u6b3e\uff0c\u5360\u5168\u7403\u5411\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u8d37\u6b3e\u603b\u989d\u768426%\uff0c\u4e3a\u5f25\u5408\u5168\u7403\u53d1\u5c55\u878d\u8d44\u7f3a\u53e3\u53d1\u6325\u4e86\u91cd\u8981\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u9664\u91d1\u7816\u56fd\u5bb6\u5916\uff0c\u4e2d\u4e1c\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e5f\u662f\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u878d\u8d44\u63d0\u4f9b\u65b9\u3002\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u53d1\u751f\u540e\uff0c\u591a\u8fb9\u548c\u53cc\u8fb9\u6e20\u9053\u6d41\u5411\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u5747\u6709\u6240\u51cf\u5c11\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5168\u7403\u53d1\u5c55\u878d\u8d44\u4f9b\u7ed9\u4ecd\u8fdc\u4e0d\u80fd\u6ee1\u8db3\u843d\u5b9e\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u5c55\u76ee\u6807\u9700\u6c42\u30022010\u20142021\u5e74\uff0c\u5b98\u65b9\u53d1\u5c55\u878d\u8d44\u603b\u989d\u7ea6\u4e3a27889\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf\u5e74\u7ea62324\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u5b98\u65b9\u53d1\u5c55\u63f4\u52a9\u8d44\u91d1\u603b\u989d\u7ea6\u4e3a13016\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5e74\u5747\u91d1\u989d\u4e3a1085\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u672a\u6765\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u53d1\u5c55\u878d\u8d44\u4ecd\u5c06\u9762\u4e34\u4f9b\u7ed9\u4e0d\u8db3\u7684\u6311\u6218\u3002\u6839\u636e\u4e16\u754c\u94f6\u884c2010\u20142021\u5e74\u7684\u5e74\u5ea6\u56fd\u9645\u503a\u52a1\u7edf\u8ba1\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u7efc\u5408\u79fb\u52a8\u5e73\u5747\u7ebf\uff08ARIMA\uff09\u56de\u5f52\u5bf92022\u2014 2025\u5e74 \u6570 \u636e \u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b \u3002\u4f30\u8ba12022\u2014 2025\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u53d1\u5c55\u878d\u8d44\u603b\u989d\u4e3a11380\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5e74\u5747\u53d1\u5c55\u878d\u8d44\u4e3a2845\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4ec5\u5360\u5168\u7403\u5e74\u5747\u9700\u6c42\u768428.5% \uff0c\u5269\u4f59\u768471.5%\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u8d44\u91d1\u7f3a\u53e3\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u901a\u8fc7\u56fd\u5185\u8d22\u653f\u3001\u516c\u5171\u548c\u79c1\u4eba\u8d44\u6e90\u3001\u5404\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u5f00\u53d1\u94f6\u884c\u3001\u4e3b\u6743\u503a\u5238\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e13\u6ce8\u4e8e\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u5916\u5546\u76f4\u63a5\u6295\u8d44\u6765\u586b\u8865\u3002\u8003\u8651\u5230\u53cc\u8fb9\u503a\u6743\u4eba\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u7b49\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u89c4\u907f\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u53cc\u8fb9\u53d1\u5c55\u878d\u8d44\u989d\u4f1a\u4ece2022\u5e74\u7684\u5cf0\u503c\u5f00\u59cb\u4e0b\u964d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uff08\u4ee5\u4e0a\u6587\u5b57\u6458\u81ea\u300a\u5168\u7403\u53d1\u5c55\u62a5\u544a2023\uff1a\u5904\u5728\u5386\u53f2\u5341\u5b57\u8def\u53e3\u7684\u5168\u7403\u53d1\u5c55\u300b\uff09<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

\u300a\u5168\u7403\u53d1\u5c55\u62a5\u544a2023\u300b\u4ee5\u201c\u5904\u5728\u5386\u53f2\u5341\u5b57\u8def\u53e3\u7684\u5168\u7403\u53d1\u5c55\u201d\u4e3a\u4e3b\u9898\uff0c\u8be0\u91ca\u5168\u7403\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u7279\u5f81\u3001\u4e3b\u8981\u8d8b\u52bf\u3001\u673a\u9047\u6311\u6218\u53ca\u524d\u77bb\u6027\u601d\u8003\uff0c\u91cd\u70b9\u5206\u6790\u51cf\u8d2b\u3001\u7cae\u98df\u5b89\u5168\u3001\u536b\u751f\u5065\u5eb7\u3001\u53d1\u5c55\u878d\u8d44\u3001\u80fd\u6e90\u8f6c\u578b\u3001\u5de5\u4e1a\u5316\u3001\u6570\u5b57\u5316\u4e03\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u7a81\u51fa\u95ee\u9898\u5e76\u63d0\u51fa\u5efa\u8bae\u3002(\u6574\u7406\/\u738b\u6d77\u71d5)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

2008\u5e74\u56fd\u9645\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u540e\uff0c\u6d41\u5411\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u4f46\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u540e\u6709\u6240\u4e0b\u6ed1\u3002\u6839\u636e\u4e16\u754c\u94f6\u884c\u6570\u636e\uff0c2010\u20142 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23,3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7070","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-qqfzbg2023","category-think-tank-communication"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.develpress.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7070"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.develpress.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.develpress.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.develpress.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.develpress.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7070"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.develpress.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7070\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7071,"href":"https:\/\/www.develpress.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7070\/revisions\/7071"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.develpress.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7070"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.develpress.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7070"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.develpress.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7070"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}